Turkey's hopes of avoiding punishing U.S. sanctions over its purchase of a Russian missile (S400 air defence system appear increasingly pinned on intervention from Donald Trump, but the president has little leeway to counter Ankara's many critics in Washington.
The two NATO allies have argued formonths over Turkey's order for the advanced S-400 missile defence batteries,which Washington says are incompatible with the Western alliance's defencenetwork and would pose a threat to U.S. F-35 stealth fighter jets which Turkeyalso plans to buy.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeoand several prominent U.S. senators have warned Turkey it will face penaltiesfor buying the S-400s under legislation which calls for sanctions againstcountries procuring military equipment from Russia. Turkey says as a NATOmember it poses no threat to the United States and the sanctions should notapply.
Resolving the dispute could allow thetwo governments to turn the corner on years of tense relations. The stakes arehigher for Turkey, which is mired in recession after a separate U.S. diplomaticdispute last year sparked a currency crisis that has echoed in recent weeks asties have again frayed.
Two months before the first batch ofS-400s could arrive in Turkey, a team of senior Turkish ministers visitedWashington this week for talks aimed at easing the crisis, culminating in anunexpected Oval Office meeting with the president.
"We are getting signals thatTrump pursues a more positive attitude than Congress," a senior Turkishofficial told Reuters. "There might certainly be some steps to be taken but thesearch for common ground will continue."
Acting U.S. Defense Secretary PatrickShanahan told reporters on Thursday: "We're closer" to a final decision on theS-400s after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart. "It's like: 'OK, where arewe stuck? How do we get unstuck?" he said of the talks, adding he wasoptimistic.
Few details of the White Housemeeting have emerged, but Turkish media quoted Finance Minister Berat Albayrak,son-in-law of President Tayyip Erdogan, as saying Trump had a "positiveunderstanding … regarding Turkey's needs for the S-400s."
Other ministers and officials on thetrip, including Turkey's defence minister and Erdogan's spokesman and nationalsecurity adviser, said the visit gave Washington the chance to get a betterunderstanding of Ankara's point of view.
Turkey has proposed a joint workinggroup which it believes could help convince the United States that the S-400sdo not pose a direct threat to the U.S. military or its jets.
The deadline on a U.S. counter offerto sell Turkey a discounted Patriot missile defence system was extended earlierthis year and remains open, according to Turkish and U.S. officials.
But neither side has given any groundpublicly. Turkey reiterated the Russian purchase was a "done deal" and the U.S.administration stuck by its warning that S-400s and F-35s could not operate inthe same space.
"The U.S. made clear to theTurkish side that the risk of sanctions is real if they take delivery of theS-400s," a U.S. official told Reuters.
Sanction Threat
Even minor U.S. sanctions could promptanother sharp sell-off in the Turkish lira that deepens the recession in theMiddle East's largest economy. After shedding 30 percent of its value lastyear, the currency is down another 10 percent and markets remain on edge.
Buying military equipment from Russialeaves Turkey liable to U.S. retribution under a 2017 law known as theCountering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA.
To waive any CAATSA sanctions imposedby Congress, Trump by law would have to show that the S-400 purchase was not a"significant transaction", and that it would not endanger the integrity of NATOor adversely affect U.S. military operations.
He would also need to show in aletter to congressional committees that the deal would not lead to a"significant negative impact" on U.S.-Turkish cooperation, and that Turkey istaking, or will take, steps over a specific period to reduce its Russian-madedefence equipment and weapons.
Erdogan's spokesman Ibrahim Kalinsaid he had heard Trump pledge in a phone call with the Turkish president twomonths ago that he would work to find a resolution to the problem. Otherofficials have also portrayed the U.S. president as sympathetic.
The talks were "more positive thanexpected" and the Americans expressed "a softer tone" than they take in public,a second senior Turkish official told Reuters.
Trump has not weighed in on Turkey inrecent weeks. Even if Turkey did have his support, however, that common groundmay prove elusive.
Relations between the two countrieshave been strained over several disputes including military strategy in theSyrian conflict, Iran sanctions, and Turkey's requests for Washington to extraditea Muslim cleric Ankara blames for a failed 2016 military coup.
The United States has also been angered by the detention of U.S. citizens in Turkey and three locally employed U.S. consular staff, one of whom was released in January, as well as clashes between Erdogan's security officers and protesters during a visit to Washington two years ago.
Those disagreements have left Erdoganwith very few supporters in Congress, which could respond to any White Housewaiver with separate sanctions legislation.
In February, a bipartisan group ofU.S. senators introduced a bill for stiff new sanctions on Russia in an effortto corner Trump into a stronger approach over meddling in U.S. elections andaggression against Ukraine.
"I don't think it's impossiblefor Turkey to get a waiver," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the TurkishProgram at The Washington Institute. "But Turkey has almost no cheerleaders inWashington and that's why it would be an uphill battle."
He added: "CATSAA is written with theidea that there should be almost no loopholes. So Trump has to find a reallygood one."
